It was dramatic: a 63% reduction in prostate cancer incidence in men who took selenium pills. Everyone took notice. Everyone talked. And men took loads of selenium.
Those of us who worked on the Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial did not “get it.” We knew the study had what is known as a patterns-of-care design that meant one thing: maybe selenium just concealed the prostate cancer without actually preventing it. No matter. The results were dramatic and our warnings went unheeded. Selenium sales soared. And we sat cheerlessly on the sidelines and watched. Meanwhile, the study’s principal, Larry Clark, was dying of prostate cancer. How ironic. How symbolic of our global ignorance about this mineral and what it truly does.
About a year ago epidemiologists at the National Cancer Institute reported that selenium supplementation was associated with increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer. This was not so widely reported. I doubt it blunted selenium sales.
Now comes news that the NCI’s massive selenium-based prostate cancer prevention trial is being discontinued. Why? Because the data show that selenium is associated with no therapeutic effect. For the details, please see the NCI’s release. This study, which followed on our original observation, was designed to test the cause-and-effect relationship of selenium and prostate cancer. It tested and found that there is no cause and effect. Which brings us back to the beginning: maybe in our study selenium merely concealed the prostate cancer without actually preventing it.
Has the selenium-prostate-cancer bubble burst for the last time? I do not know. I can only hope.
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